As mentioned in other rankings, there are a hundred ways to determine how vulnerable a legislative district is for a takeover by the opposing political Party.
Just because a district or a legislator appears on this list does not mean that they are in political trouble. It does generally mean that the legislators who represent these districts must be able to find ways of winning over voters from the opposing Party.
These rankings are not a statement about the legislator who represents them. This ranking is simply a mathematical formula that determines how strong or weak a district is compared to all the other districts in the state.
The following is a list of Republican House members representing districts in which Democrats can win a majority, or a significant percentage, of the vote. Of all the Republican-held districts in Georgia, these 10 Republican-held districts have the highest capacity for Democrats to win votes, a figure that is stated in the right column: The Democratic Ideal.
The Democratic Ideal is the average of multiple election results within each district for the best-performing statewide (non-Presidential) Democratic candidates in 2006, 2008 or 2010.
Thanks to Mike Seigle, Gabriel Sterling, Mark Pettitt and Andrew Pantino here at Landmark for researching and contributing to this targeting report. Doing a report like this requires hundreds of man-hours, accumulating thousands of pieces of information including election results, voter history, and geographic and demographic information.
Tomorrow we’ll release the Top Ten List of Most Vulnerable Democratic Districts.
Rank District GOP Incumbent Democratic Ideal
#1. 151 Bob Hanner/Gerald Greene 66.57%
#2. 171 Jay Powell 59.46%
#3. 138 Mike Cheokas 59.43%
#4. 117 Doug McKillip 58.05%
#5. 119 Chuck Williams 56.08%
#6. 158 Butch Parrish 56.02%
#7. 13 Katie Dempsey 55.88%
#8. 40 Rich Golick 55.39%
#9. 149 Jimmy Pruett 54.58%
#10. 164 Ron Stephens 54.03%
Common characteristics of Vulnerable Districts:
Only 1 of the 10 are in metro Atlanta (Golick). 9 of 10 are outside of Metro Atlanta;
2 of the 10 are in the Athens area (McKillip and Williams).
Only 1 of the 10 are in North Georgia (Dempey). Most of the House Districts where Democrats can still muster a majority are in South Georgia.
**Tomorrow morning we’ll release the Top 10 List of Most Vulnerable Democratic Districts.