OpinionSavvy Poll Shows Trump Continuing to Lead in Georgia

In a poll of Georgia likely GOP primary voters taken following Tuesday night’s Republican presidential Debate, Donald Trump leads the GOP horse race with 35% support, followed by Ted Cruz with 16%, Marco Rubio with 12%, Jeb Bush, Ben Carson and Chris Christie are tied with 6% each. Carly Fiorina has 5% and the remaining candidates have 2% or less. 6% are undecided.

When the choice of possible candidates was limited to the five considered most likely to win the nomination, the results were a bit different:

Donald Trump 40%
Marco Rubio 19%
Ted Cruz 18%
Ben Carson 9%
Jeb Bush 7%
Undecided 7%

The more limited poll shows a five point gain for Trump, but a virtual tie for Rubio and Cruz, especially when you consider if Carson were eliminated, his supporters would likely go to Cruz, while Bush’s supporters would likely to go Rubio.

Poll respondents said the top four debate winners were Trump, Cruz, Rubio and Christie, in that order. Losers were Bush, Trump, Carson and Kasich.

Finally, poll respondents were asked about the temporary ban on Muslims entering the United States proposed by Donald Trump. 70% supported the idea, with 43% strongly approving the measure. 27% disapproved, with 18% strongly disapproving. 3% were undecided. This, despite the fact that the proposed ban would have constitutional and treaty violation implications.

The poll was taken on December 16th and has a 4.2% margin of error. Update: View the crosstabs here.

12 comments

  1. F. Underwood says:

    Jeb had his best performance of the campaign at the last debate. He may be able to turn his campaign around after all. As people start to get serious about a president and start to tune in to his ads, which are the best IMO, he could be front-runner again by March.

    • TheEiger says:

      Really? That’s a hard one to see. He can’t be fifth or lower in Iowa and New Hampshire and survive. I don’t think. This cycle is certainly crazy so I guess anything is possible. I have a feeling that republicans are about to spend the next twenty years in the desert with no republican president.

    • benevolus says:

      I think he’ll turn it around too. It looks like a Jeb!-Rubio battle down the stretch to me. Boring, but at least not lunacy.

      • TheEiger says:

        I hope you are right, but one or both have to win an early state. Which one do they win? they can’t be fourth or fifth in all the early states and survive. Money dries up and staffers jump ship. They have to win in Iowa, NH, SC or NV. If not they will both be out of the running by March 1st. Florida isn’t until March 15th and Rubio and Bush can’t wait until Florida to hope for a win.

        • benevolus says:

          Not so fast. Iowa and NH are both proportional, so the delegates will be divided up, and I would expect the superdelegates to go with Rubio or Bush (not a certainty though).
          S.C. is winner take all so that’s probably an important one, but NV is also proportional.
          Bush (for example) could come out of those 4 not having “won” any of them, but be first or second in delegates. Not ideal but it keeps you in the race. And I would expect him to stay in through the March 15 FL primary in any case. Rubio will probably know his fate by March 2. The Texas primary should be interesting.

          I admit “winning” has a lot of P.R. value though.

          • TheEiger says:

            I understand the delegate counts, but getting a few delegates won’t really help you build the wave of momentum to win unless your plan is to pick up a handful of delegates to go to a brokered convention. People don’t want to vote for a loser so if their guy is in the bottom in the first few states they start to look at the top two and pick from them. Just ask Ruddy when he decided to sit out Iowa, NH, SC and wait on Florida. He was the front runner early on and got destroyed because he wasn’t competitive in the early states.

          • TheEiger says:

            They are both 4th and 5th in Texas and double digits behind in Florida. You are 100% correct that they may pick up delegates, but that isn’t how you when elections. Show me anywhere in recent history where the ultimate nominee didn’t when a state. I wish I was wrong and that this isn’t how presidential election work, but sadly it is. One of them will have to win a state to have a chance.

            • benevolus says:

              I’m not really disagreeing with you. Not winning at least one of those four would be a big problem, but it is possible and this is a strange field.

  2. Dave Bearse says:

    Two takes:

    (1) Though Rubio and Cruz were approximately tied when the choices were limited to five, Rubio gained 7% without the also rans, more than any other and more than Trump’s 5%. Relatively speaking Rubio gained more too, more than a 50% increase (though Carson was close). This seems to point to Rubio becoming the Georgia consensus establishment candidate.

    (2) The GOP is yet bifurcated between Trump-Crux-Carson and establishment candidates. Trump-Crux-Carson picked up half of those supporting the also rans.

    • John Konop says:

      ….(2) The GOP is yet bifurcated between Trump-Crux-Carson and establishment candidates. Trump-Crux-Carson picked up half of those supporting the also rans…..

      That was my first observation on the polls about a month ago. It can shift around, but at the end it is clear, non establishment candidates have been in the majority within the GOP during this cycle. I keep hearing how this could be like the McCain, Romney cycle….but the difference was it was never the establishment vote in the minority before.

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