Concern For Trump In Post-Debate Polling.
On Peach Pundit The Podcast last night, Scot and I talked at length about President Biden’s troubles and the effort by some to push him out of the race, and others to keep him in it. Give it a listen.
One of the things I said during the podcast was that Biden could actually win. Conventional wisdom says that Biden was losing before his disastrous debate, and after we all saw what we saw that steamy night in Atlanta, this race is over unless Democrats replace him. Except that national polls have kinda settled down and the race remains as it has been for some time now
A glance at the Real Clear Politics national polling average this morning shows Trump ahead by 2.7 points. This includes an NBC/Marist poll released yesterday of 1174 registered voters showing Biden ahead by two points 50-48.
Meanwhile, 538’s national polling average shows Trump in the lead by 2.2 points.
There are caveats of course. We don’t vote nationally, we vote state-by-state. State-level polls look better for Trump, especially in key swing states like Georgia. It’s also early. Pollsters haven’t yet switched to only polling likely voters. There have been two post-debate LV polls: A NY Times poll showed Trump up 6, but CBS had Trump up only 2. But we don’t know how likely voters will feel about Biden’s infirmity as we get closer to election day.
The point is this: Trump does NOT have this election in the bag. His negatives are as high as Biden’s. Voters don’t like him. Republicans and the Trump Campaign can’t take anything for granted. Democrats may succeed in pushing Biden aside and putting forward a younger ticket. That could refocus the race on Trump’s numerous flaws and give the Dems the upper hand come August. Or Biden could have a few good weeks, remain as the nominee, and run a basement campaign like he did successfully in 2020.
Voters have been telling pollsters for months and months that they didn’t want either Trump or Biden to run again. Neither Party’s primary voters listened to them. Now both Parties are wondering why their guy is locked in a tight race against an obviously unworthy opponent. Nobody should be surprised we’re in the mess we’re in. We put ourselves here.
