Trumps No Good Very Bad Week Explained

Over the past ten days or so, former President Donald Trump has slowly boiled off any semblance of the unity message that was made front and center following the events of July 13th. Coming out of the Convention, Republicans were feeling very confident… maybe a little too confident. Now, I won’t address the conspiracies of the complexities on why the DNC agreed to an early debate or how well crafted the timing of the switch of President Biden and VP Harris was; or how quickly the media and delegates fell in line. This is a bit of a supposition on why former President Trump started late night social media tirades followed by attacks on at least 3 sitting Republican Governors that culminated with an attack on Gov. Brian Kemp and his wife First Lady Marty Kemp on Saturday.

Let’s rewind just two weeks, which admittedly in today’s world can seem like an eternity. The day is July 21st and Trump is leading Biden by 3 points nationally. Trump is also leading by five in Arizona, seven in Nevada, one in Wisconsin, one and a half in Michigan, four in Pennsylvania, four in North Carolina and two in Georgia. This meant that as of that morning, Trump had numerous routes to victory and was pushing towards not just victory but rather something of a rout. The electoral count would have been Former President Trump 312 President- Joe Biden 226.

This is where the country was just two short weeks ago but alas, the game has changed, and Democrats have rallied around VP Harris. VP Harris is a bit of problem for the Trump campaign because the messaging that they have spent millions of dollars on is now likely to be weaponized back against them. Former President Trump is now the oldest Presidential candidate in American History. Further, the messaging on the economy, border and even international events is a bit muted because VP Harris is not the face of the administration. Case and point? Today, the former President attempted to label the markets sputter as the “Kamala Crash” … the only issue? VP Harris is not in charge of fiscal policy, that would be the Republican House nor is she in charge of monetary policy, that would be Fed Chair Jerome Powell that was appointed by none other than Former President Trump.

So maybe this explains why President Trump has been a bit ornery, but I propose something a bit worse for the Former President. I propose that internal polling for the former President is not just indicating a shift in the race but rather a sort of coup that has been pulled off by the Democratic party. Democrats have followed the advice of the fictional President Frank Underwood “if you don’t like how the table is set, turn over the table”. They have waited for DJT to select a VP candidate, which at the time was a base election so Senator JD Vance made perfect sense. Most Republicans would be satisfied, and he would further energize the rust belt base. However, with the switch the election is now an enthusiasm election which means that the Trump/Vance ticket will need to not only motivate the base but also pickup votes from other key demographic groups that are either purple or traditionally lean blue. President Trump realizing this would start to see internal polling that is indicating that the race that he viewed just two weeks ago as simple and almost assured is now not only slipping away but becoming increasingly difficult. Typically, the campaign that has the most paths to victory is the campaign that wins in Presidential elections and today August 7th, that campaign is no longer the Trump/Vance ticket but rather the Harris/Walz.

So where does the race stand? Nationally the race is now Harris 45.7% -Trump 43.6%. In Arizona, Trumps lead that was 5% is down to just 1.4%. Nevada has tightened from 7% to .6%. Wisconsin? Well, it is even worse, a state where Trump led by 1% is now Harris by 1.3%. Michigan has not only flipped but is now out of the margin of error, VP Harris +2.4%. North Carolina remains steadfastly red but by only 1.9%. Pennsylvania has become the lynch pin for a Trump victory and is now a must win for him to return to the White House; the polling indicates that it is now VP Harris +.9%. Which finally brings us to Georgia and why President Trump might have thrown a temper tantrum on stage on Saturday. Georgia which was considered a done deal by consultants on both sides of the aisle just two weeks ago has now become a coin flip and though Trump does still maintain a lead it is by just 1.2%. President Trump needs to hold every voter he can in the State of Georgia which in any normal year would mean attempting to make amends with the most popular Governor in America but in President Trumps world, that translates to an increase in berating the popular Governor until he relents and gives in to Trump’s demands. But that is not likely to happen and instead appears to have blown up spectacularly in the former Presidents face. What’s worse for Republicans is that even those in the State that are the most ardent defenders of the former President seemingly know this as they have quietly murmured over the last 72 hours.

So where are we now? Well based on the polling, a race that was almost assuredly a Trump victory has now become a race in which there is a greater than fifty percent chance of the next President being Kamala Harris. The electoral count based on these polls would be VP Harris 270- President Trump 268.

Now, admittedly polls are just snapshots in time and these things can change rapidly as we have just seen in the last two weeks. BUT campaigns have information that we do not have and the return to 2020 level temper tantrums over that last two weeks seems to indicate that the internal information that the former President is being given is worse than what we are seeing now. He can overcome this, but it will require serious self-control and precision messaging from now to election day, and only he himself can control that over the next 91 days!