How Likely Are Democrats To Gain Legislative Seats?
As Qualifying Week ended, we heard about the impressive number of Democrats who had qualified to run for Legislative seats. Democrats, as one might expect, touted this as proof they are an ascendant group and good things are in store for them this November.
How tenuous is the GOP’s hold on the Legislature? Let’s take a look.
Using historical data from Dave’s Redistricting (House map, Senate map), I’ve placed districts into the following categories:
- Safe Republican Seats (60% +/<)
- Likely Republican Seats (55% =/<, =/<59%)
- Leans Republican Seates (<55%, >52%)
- Toss Up (=/<51%, >/=49%)
- Leans Democratic Seats (<55%, >52%)
- Likely Democratic Seats (55% =/<, =/<59%)
- Safe Democratic Seats (60% +/<)
Here’s how the districts break down in the State House:
- Safe Republican Seats: 77
- Likely Republican Seats: 14
- Leans Republican Seats: 3
- Toss Up: 7
- Leans Democratic Seats: 4
- Likely Democratic Seats: 14
- Safe Democratic Seats: 61
Of the 7 toss-up seats (48, 53, 99, 105, 108, 128, and 154), the GOP holds 5, and the Democrats hold 2. Of note, both Democratic toss-up seats will have no incumbent in November.
And in the State Senate:
- Safe Republican Seats: 24
- Likely Republican Seats: 8
- Leans Republican Seats: 1
- Toss Up: 0
- Leans Democratic Seats: 1
- Likely Democratic Seats: 3
- Safe Democratic Seats: 19
Therefore we can say that for Democrats to win control of the State House (91 seats), they need to hold all Safe, Likely, and Leans Democratic seats, win all 7 toss up seats, and all three Leans Republican seats, and two of the Leans Republican seats.
For Democrats to win control of the State Senate (29 seats), they need to hold their Safe, Likely, and Leans Democratic seats, win the 1 Leans Republican, and 5 of the Likely Republican seats.
As I said on the podcast on Friday, it would take a massive blue wave for Democrats to gain control of one of both Legislative Chambers. Will they chip into the GOP’s majority? Perhaps. But they have seats to defend as well, and as will all things in the Trump era, a billion crazy things are likely to happen between now and November.
