As Biden bows out; Democrats hang hopes on Harris
For the first time since 1968, an incumbent president who could run for reelection has decided to bow out of the Presidential race. President Lyndon Baines Johnson made his famous announcement in March 1968 after winning the New Hampshire primary but doing so with less than 50% of the vote, a terrible showing for any incumbent President. Of course, prior to the passage of the passage of the 22nd Amendment (ratified in 1951), which limited the President to only two terms, the only thing that kept an incumbent President from running for re-election was the tradition set by George Washington who voluntarily stepped down after eight years. A notable early break from that tradition was the presidency of popular James K. Polk, who declined to run for re-election in 1848 after only one term and after a swift and decisive victory in the Mexican-American War. Polk had promised to serve only one term (ironically, Biden made a similar promise to serve only one term) and kept his pledge.
Franklin D. Roosevelt broke the two term tradition, running for and being elected to four terms (1932, 1936, 1940, and 1944), governing through the Great Depression and World War II. Roosevelt’s presidency ended within a few months of the beginning of his fourth term when he died of a stroke in Warm Springs, GA in April 1945.
One thing that has never happened in U.S. history is a Presidential candidate bowing out in the period between the primaries and the nominating convention. As this is a novel historical event, I have had several people ask me about the process of replacing Biden as the nominee and what will happen next.
In the beginning of our republic, presidential nominees were determined by what was termed as a “King Caucus,” where groups of party elected officials, mostly members of Congress, would caucus and agree on a nominee. This process began when it became necessary to choose a successor to George Washington and the nation had split into two camps, the Federalist Party and the Democratic-Republican Party. This process was widely criticized as being undemocratic (hence the label as a “King” Caucus), but it persisted until in 1832 when the first party convention was held by the Democratic Party to nominate Andrew Jackson.
From 1832 until the 1960’s, party delegates choose the nominees. Although more democratic than the King Caucuses were, the process was still controlled by groups of party elites. Backroom deals were common as party insiders traded delegate votes for favors. The term “the smoke filled room” came out of the 1920 Republican National Convention in Chicago where Warren G. Harding ended up with the nomination after the convention deadlocked through several votes and party leaders met in secret to decide on how to break the stalemate.
Delegates could be won for even the most insignificant reasons. There is a story that in 1860, the delegates from Pennsylvania travelled to Illinois to meet candidate Abraham Lincoln and “size” him up for the nomination. The head of the PA delegation was 6’3”. Lincoln was 6’4”. As legend has it, the head of the delegation threw his support to Lincoln as he had been searching his whole life for a President “he could look up to.”
It wasn’t until after World War II that the nation started involving individual party members in the nomination process as states began to use primaries and caucuses to select delegates. In 1948, 12 states, including New Hampshire, held primaries. By 1960, that number had grown to 14 states and the District of Columbia. By 1968, the modern primary process we all know was well established.
While the exit of a party nominee this late is unprecedented in the modern primary era, the political parties have contingencies to deal with this kind of unexpected development…the loss of the leading candidate for the nomination before the nominating convention. While it has not happened to the presumptive nominee, the Democratic Party has had to deal with the loss of a popular, though not leading, candidate late in the primaries.
Once again, in 1968, as the Democratic Party was preparing to meet in Chicago for their nominating convention, the primary was thrown into disarray as former U.S. Attorney General and younger brother of the late President John F. Kennedy, Robert F. Kennedy was assassinated after winning the California Primary on June 4. Kennedy was in second place in the delegate count behind eventual nominee, Vice-President Hubert Humphrey, but with the win in California, Kennedy was closing the gap. Despite the chaos of the primary, Humphrey won the nomination on the first ballot at the convention.
So, what happens now that President Biden has withdrawn with the majority of pledged delegates after the primary process is over? The answer is simple, it will ultimately be up to the delegates to choose a nominee, and there will be immense pressure to choose Vice-President Kamala Harris.
First, it is important to explain what is meant by “pledged delegates.”
In reality, the primary process is not as much about voters choosing a presidential candidate, but choosing delegates who will nominate the candidate the voters voted for in the primary. Delegates are allocated by Congressional District and Statewide. If a candidate wins a Congressional District, they get the delegates elected from that district, even if they do not win statewide. The winner of the state will usually get the statewide delegates. Local state party rules, as long as they don’t conflict with the rules of the national party, determine the allocation, including states (those which usually have primaries later in the process) that have “winner take all” provisions. Just like in November when voters are technically electing Electors to the Electoral College, primary voters are not directly electing the nominee for President, but electing delegates who are bound (pledged) to the winner by party rules and state laws. Whether for the nomination process or the general election, there is no direct election of the President by the people.
Once the delegates get to the convention, they are free to vote their conscience within certain parameters. Party rules and state laws require delegates to vote for the candidate who won their state’s primary, but this restriction is only for the first three ballots or if the candidate releases their delegates. In this case, Biden has released his delegates, so they are released from their legal obligation to vote for him and are now able to vote for anyone they choose.
The task for Democratic party leaders is to make sure that the now unpledged delegates unify around Harris. Even if there is privately weeping and gnashing of teeth among Democratic leaders loyal to Biden, the threat to their power that a second Trump administration would mean will ensure the tears are reserved for the (vape) smoke-filled rooms, and a united front will be on full display. The primary process has spoiled us, allowing a process where candidates are chosen in a months long process and one which allows supporters of other losing candidates to come to terms that their candidate wasn’t the one chosen allowing a more natural unity to occur by the convention. You can almost say that the long process allows those who supported a losing candidate to go through all of the stages of grief allowing enough time to reach “acceptance” and support the nominee. What the Democrats are having to go through is a process more in line with how party nominations worked for over a century, just a process that has not been used in three generations.
For Republicans, the danger is to look at the situation the Democrats now find themselves in and smugly believe the election is over. Democrats have used the exact same process to beat Republicans in the past, and, if they can come out of the convention united, and with Biden’s war chest, and if Republicans take the election for granted, Harris could still win, especially if she has a smart, strategic pick for her running mate.
Any opposition to Harris for the nomination only has four weeks to find enough support among the delegates to take the nomination, but the weakness of the Democratic bench is on full display in that there is no heir apparent to Joe Biden except for Harris. Conspiracy theories that suggest Michelle Obama or Hillary Clinton could captivate the delegates aside, there is no one in the Democratic Party with the cachet that the Veep currently holds.
This is seen in the fact that many local Democratic leaders in Georgia are rallying around a Harris nomination. Shortly after the announcement came of Biden dropping out, Georgia Senators Raphael Warnock and Jon Ossoff, along with Congresswoman Lucy McBath, former Atlanta Mayor Keisha Lance Bottoms, and other prominent Georgia Democrats all endorsed Harris. Former Republican Lt. Governor Geoff Duncan, who endorsed Biden in May, stopped short of endorsing Harris, but double downed on his “Anyone But Trump” position.
However, while elected and party leaders may be lining up to endorse Harris, as the AJC notes, “there’s no telling how Harris will make a case for herself as the presidential nominee after years of playing a secondary role to Biden — or how rank-and-file Democratic voters, and eventually the nation, will respond.”
It was reported on Friday that a poll showed a generic “Younger Democrat” beating Trump in all the swing states, including by 10 points in Georgia. The problem is the Democrats aren’t running a “generic younger Democrat,” they are running a flesh and blood person with a record that can be picked apart. A “generic” candidate will always poll better as the person answering the poll will put in their mind their preferred candidate, and not necessarily the person who ends up being the candidate. Harris certainly has amassed a clearly left-winged record as a statewide elected official in California (Attorney General and U.S. Senator) and will have to answer for the failures of the Biden-Harris administration, an issue that dogged Hubert Humphrey as Nixon tied him to the failures of the Johnson-Humphrey administration in 1968. Harris will also have to answer for hiding the obvious mental decline of Joe Biden, an issue that is already being highlighted in ads that began running as soon as Biden made his announcement.
There is another danger for Republicans in that the Democrats may give what Republicans from VP nominee J.D. Vance to Georgia State Party Chairman Josh McKoon are demanding…that Joe Biden resign from the presidency.
Many Republicans are suggesting that if Biden cannot continue to be a candidate, he cannot continue to be President either. While there may be some questions and concerns about VP Harris among the Democratic faithful, one sure way to end all division is to make her the President of the United States. It is also one thing for swing voters to make decision in an open election, one with no incumbent, on whether to hire Harris or re-hire Donald Trump. It’s a wholly different situation to ask voters to fire the first woman and woman of color to hold the office of President of the United States. It is one thing to serve as President of the United States…it’s a wholly different thing to serve as President AND run an aggressive re-election campaign, which Biden would have to do to actually beat Donald Trump.
The great Chinese military leader Sun Tzu once said, “the opportunity of defeating the enemy is provided by the enemy himself.”
While the Democrats are providing one opportunity with the chaos caused by Joe Biden’s departure, the Republicans seem bent on providing the opportunity for their own defeat as well. Rather than worrying about the Democrats’ woes, Republicans should buckle in for a tough fight, one that could be made tougher should Biden decide to become only the second President in U.S. history to resign.
